Although the term and the physics were there already, it was a man named Edward Lorenz who first made that phrase applicable to weather in the 1970’s, and who also made the “if a butterfly flaps its wings in the Amazon, it can cause a tornado in Texas 3 months later” phrase popular. And it all started with a computer. A big, desk-sized computer that weighed over 700 pounds and was run with hundreds of vacuum tubes, and had the calculating capacity far smaller than a hand-held IPhone of today.
The story of computer evolution is well known, but back in the 70’s, Lorenz, having his computer, was able to put in a vast amount of variables into his device to maybe come out with mathematical certitude about the weather. At one point, he re-fed his computer with numbers already generated, but put his numbers in only to the 3rd (if I recall right) decimal point. The original data was put in to the 6th decimal point. Lorenz naturally thought that what would come back would be nearly identical to what he had originally gotten, and this was true in the initial numbers. But with time – going out to, say, 3 days of forecasting, he found that the second set of numbers came up with radically different readings for the upcoming weather. With more experimentation, he discovered that the slightest discrepancies in data would, over several days, bring dramatically different results. The conclusion was obvious – minute differences accumulated over time to great differences, and these differences were impossible to predict. Impossible, because all data could never be taken (every atom, etcetera) and that each small difference would result in great divergences over time.
That is not to say that this chaos was completely chaotic – there were limits. In fact, we find that the differences fan out and curve back within certain boundaries, and when graphed, look for all the world like butterfly wings. Thus, the poetic applicability of the butterfly to chaos theory. However, within this discovery we find the idea, still accepted by science as well as the author, that the weather always follows physical laws, and as such, is theoretically predictable. This has generated the expression “Laplace’s Monster,” named for the early 19th century French mathematician who stated that, if all information were known, we could perfectly predict ALL physical phenomena. The monster, of course, is All Information, and all information could never be known. With chaos theory, we now know what that can mean – huge differences rendered from small initial differences.
Which is not to say that more and better information doesn’t make for better predictions, for it does: reliability for short-term forecasting has shot up from 50% in the 1960’s to over 90% (for 24 hour forecasts) today. Not bad. But I have a bone to pick with Laplace’s Monster. Although the math is waaaay beyond me, quantum theory clearly states, and has been proven again and again, that the observer effects the action of the observed. The observer – the human – behaves according to thoughts. Thus, Laplace’s Monster must then have as a part of its measurements the thoughts of all people – never mind that of all animals, simple as they might be. And we don’t have to go to complex theory to show this: human thought leads to all kinds of physical changes, from cutting down forests to driving a car to the grocery store for items necessary for something as unpredictable as sex. Thus, it is not even necessary to speculate that our silent thoughts cause atoms to act differently – our expressed thoughts will do this just fine. And no computer made by Man can ever know all the thoughts of Man, or even a small bit of them. Thus weather will always remain, in the long run, an unpredictable monster.
What this says about current notions of weather – from theories about desertification to Co2 levels – raises one necessarily to the level of skeptic. But in finding that the smallest changes can make for huge differences over time, we must rethink the amount of power that each of us has over things as vast as the weather. Could a reverent approach to nature change the course of weather history, and thus human history? Although not certain, it is absolutely possible. More so, if I can make the jump from physical laws to human laws – which in this case I believe I can – isn’t it possible that small changes in thought can have huge implications for changes of thought world-wide? Even if we take out some sort of ESP effect, these thought patterns would change physical actions, which we know can lead to greater changes later on.
It is odd that chaos theory can contribute to what the great sages have been saying for centuries – that we can change the world, not just by the might of a Genghis Khan, but by the peace of a saint or monk. Further, I do intuitively agree with those quantum theorists who think that even silent thought, without actions, affects the physical world. What are thoughts? Are they not, in some sphere, tangible things? The thought that went into writing this blog was there before it was written, and even then, it was something, somehow, somewhere. Could it be that those thoughts were already having an effect? Jesus, among other wise beings, claimed that we were all of one body (an idea contained in quantum theory that spreads out to ALL things and intentions). Would not every thought affect that body? Wouldn’t it then be true that, if the kingdom of God is within us all, that this realization among even a few could bring it too all of us?
Of course, in chaos theory, nothing is predictable within the parameters. A butterfly flapping its wings might cause a tornado, but it might stop a tornado, or do nothing at all. Still, more and more evidence is pointing to a directed universe, one with a driving intelligence that has led, for instance, to the development of humans and self-reflective thought. Couldn’t it also mean that, eventually, the realization of heaven on earth by one or a few, like the flapping of the butterfly’s wings, could be the force that drives us to a greater, even the greatest, future, one that is intended for us if we so decide?
Weather – I’ll be looking at you differently now, but with even greater interest. Just like any old fool, surely, but now with eyes further opened, even though there is a lot more to weather than meets the eye. FK